米英豪合同研究：マスクによる新型コロナ死亡数抑制効果
宇野
1918年のスペイン風邪では、ワクチンはなかったが、
3年で収束した。
その間、
全世界的にマスクによる予防効果が示された。
米国では、マスク着用は法的に義務化された。
日本でもマスクが流行した。
・・・・・
米国のワシントン大学、英国のオックスフォード大学、オーストラリアのクイーンズランド大学の合計91人の研究者が名を連ねた論文で、米国の95%が通常のマスクをすることによって、4カ月で13万人の新型コロナ死亡を抑制できると結論した。
この研究は、米国では50%しかマスクをしていないが、各州のマスク着用率と死亡率を分析した結果である。
IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team
Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United
States
Nat Med 2020 Oct 23; [e-pub]. (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9)
１）Robert C. Reiner Jr1,2,14,
２）Ryan M. Barber1,14,
３）James K. Collins1 ,
４）Peng Zheng1 ,
５）Christopher Adolph3,4,
６）James Albright1 ,
７）Catherine M. Antony1 ,
８）Aleksandr Y. Aravkin1,2,5,
９）Steven D. Bachmeier1 ,
１１）Bree Bang-Jensen3 ,
１２）Marlena S. Bannick1 ,
１３）Sabina Bloom1 ,
１４）Austin Carter1 ,
１５）Emma Castro1 ,
１６）Kate Causey1 ,
１７）Suman Chakrabarti1 ,
１８）Fiona J. Charlson1,6,
１９）Rebecca M. Cogen1 ,
２０）Emily Combs1 ,
２１）Xiaochen Dai1 ,
２２）William James Dangel1 ,
２３）Lucas Earl1 ,
２４）Samuel B. Ewald1 ,
２５）Maha Ezalarab1 ,
２６）Alize J. Ferrari1,7,8,
２７）Abraham Flaxman1,2,
２８）Joseph Jon Frostad1 ,
２９）Nancy Fullman1 ,
３０）Emmanuela Gakidou1,2,
３１）John Gallagher1 ,
３２）Scott D. Glenn1 ,
３３）Erik A. Goosmann1 ,
３４）Jiawei He1 ,
３５）Nathaniel J. Henry1,9,
３６）Erin N. Hulland1,10,
３７）Benjamin Hurst1 ,
３８）Casey Johanns1 ,
３９）Parkes J. Kendrick1 ,
４０）Apurva Khemani8,11,
４１）Samantha Leigh Larson1 ,
４２）Alice Lazzar-Atwood1 ,
４３）Kate E. LeGrand1 ,
４４）Haley Lescinsky1 ,
４５）Akiaja Lindstrom7,8,
４６）Emily Linebarger1 ,
４７）Rafael Lozano1,2,
４８）Rui Ma1 ,
４９）Johan Månsson1 ,
５０）Beatrice Magistro3 ,
５１）Ana M. Mantilla Herrera1,7,8,
５２）Laurie B. Marczak1 ,
５３）Molly K. Miller-Petrie1 ,
５４）Ali H. Mokdad1,2,
５５）Julia Deryn Morgan1 ,
５６）Paulami Naik1 ,
５７）Christopher M. Odell1 ,
５８）James K. O’Halloran1 ,
５９）Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman1 ,
６０）Samuel M. Ostroff1,12,
６１）Maja Pasovic1 ,
６２）Louise Penberthy1 ,
６３）Geoffrey Phipps1 ,
６４）David M. Pigott1,2,
６５）Ian Pollock1 ,
６６）Rebecca E. Ramshaw1 ,
６７）Sofia Boston Redford1 ,
６８）Grace Reinke3 ,
６９）Sam Rolfe1 ,
７０）Damian Francesco Santomauro1,7,13,
７１）John R. Shackleton1 ,
７２）David H. Shaw1 ,
７３）Brittney S. Sheena1 ,
７４）Aleksei Sholokhov1 ,
７５）Reed J. D. Sorensen1,10,
７６）Gianna Sparks1 ,
７７）Emma Elizabeth Spurlock1 ,
７８）Michelle L. Subart1 ,
７９）Ruri Syailendrawati1 ,
８０）Anna E. Torre1 ,
８１）Christopher E. Troeger1 ,
８２）Theo Vos1,2,
８３）Alexandrea Watson1 ,
８４）Stefanie Watson1 ,
８５）Kirsten E. Wiens1 ,
８６）Lauren Woyczynski1 ,
８７）Liming Xu1 ,
８８）Jize Zhang1 ,
８９）Simon I. Hay1,2,
９０）Stephen S. Lim1,2
９１）and Christopher J. L. Murray1,2 1
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation,
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
1. Institute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. 2. Department of Health
Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
USA.
3. Department of Political Science,
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
4. Center for Statistics and the Social
Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. 5. Department of Applied
Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
6. Queensland Centre for Mental Health
Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
7. School of Public Health, The University
of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. 8. Queensland Centre for Mental
Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
9. Big Data Institute, University of
Oxford, Oxford, UK.
10. Department of Global Health, University
of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
11. QIMR Berghofer Medical Research
Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
12. Henry M Jackson School of International
Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
13. Policy and Epidemiology Group,
Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
14These authors contributed equally: Robert
C Reiner Jr., Ryan M Barber. ✉e-mail: sihay@uw.edu
ABSTRUCT
We use COVID-19 case and mortality data
from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR
(susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to
model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in
the United States at the state level from 22 September 2020 through 28 February
2021. Using this SEIR model, and projections of critical driving covariates
(pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates and mask use per capita), we
assessed scenarios of social distancing mandates and levels of mask use.
Projections of current non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies by state—with
social distancing mandates reinstated when a threshold of 8 deaths per million
population is exceeded (reference scenario)—suggest that, cumulatively, 511,373
(469,578–578,347) lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by
28 February 2021. We find that achieving universal mask use (95% mask use in
public) could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic
resurgences in many states. Universal mask use could save an additional 129,574
(85,284–170,867) lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February
2021, or an additional 95,814 (60,731–133,077) lives assuming a lesser adoption
of mask wearing (85%), when compared to the reference scenario.
この研究は、
米国でコロナ死亡者数が23万人以上と世界で最も多い理由の大きな原因は
政治的理由からマスクを軽視したためと導かれるかもしれない。
91人におよぶ前代未聞の著者数は、
裁判準備、あるいは政治的な医学者の署名の意味を持つのかもしれない。
今の日本で、経済活動を推進するのであれば、マスクの法的義務化が求められる。
都道府県の条例でもよいが、
アベノマスクを配るほど国は重要性を示したのであるから、
国単位での規制をすべきであろう。
